McCain campaign manager expects big victory

By DANIEL PERSON Chronicle Staff Writer

A campaign manager for Republican presidential candidate John McCain said Tuesday that the Arizona senator will garner the support of a large majority of Montana voters in November, despite suggestions that the state could swing Democratic this fall.

“It’s clear that Sen. (Barack) Obama - in his positions, his record - is out of step with the large majority of Montana voters,” Ben Golnik said while campaigning in Bozeman. “A close examination of Sen. McCain’s record will show that his views, his positions on the key issues are much more in line with a large majority of voters in Montana.”

Early polls and campaigning suggest the 2008 presidential contest in Montana will be far more competitive than in past elections.

Recent electoral history is on McCain’s side, with Montana voting for the Republican presidential candidate all but once in the last 10 presidential elections. The only exception was in 1992, when Bill Clinton won the state after Ross Perot and George Bush split the conservative vote.

Four years ago, President Bush beat Democratic opponent John Kerry in Montana by 20 percentage points.

But a poll released July 1 by the independent firm Rasmussen Reports showed Obama five points ahead of McCain among likely Montana voters, and Obama has visited the state multiple times, including a July 4 visit to Butte. Also, Obama’s campaign has opened six offices across the state, while McCain’s campaign has yet to open one.

Even Republican political observers are saying Montana is a swing state this year. In an op-ed published in the Chronicle, former Republican Secretary of State and gubernatorial candidate Bob Brown declared “Montana is indeed a ‘battleground’ state.”

But Golnik said Tuesday he is confident that come November, McCain will have the support of a strong majority in Montana.

Golnik said Obama is enjoying a surge of popularity after the Democratic primary came through Montana, and that beginning around Labor Day voters will begin taking a closer look at both candidates. He also said McCain’s history of bipartisanship and strong stance on guns rights will register with Montana voters.

“Ultimately, the people of Montana who value independence, who are not voting their party but are voting country first or principles first” will vote for McCain, Golnik said. “Once it becomes a clear battle between Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain, we’re going to see a vast majority of Montanans consolidating behind Sen. McCain.”

Golnik noted McCain’s criticism of the increased spending under the Bush Administration, McCain’s criticism of the Iraq War prior to the surge, and his support of immigration reform despite vitriolic opposition from the right. He criticized Obama’s stance on guns, saying Obama supported bans on semi-automatic rifles, and conceal and carry laws.

Caleb Weaver, a spokesman for Obama’s Montana campaign, said Obama supported the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning the D.C. gun ban, and that he will work to ensure public lands are available for hunters and anglers.

“What (Obama) has been very clear about is what is appropriate for Chicago is not appropriate for Montana,” Weaver said. “Sen. Obama is a big proponent of state decisions on what is good gun policy.”

Weaver also balked at the suggestion McCain has been a bipartisan senator.

“Sen. McCain presented himself that way in 2000, but in his campaign in 2008 has been straight down the middle on Republican issues,” Weaver said.

Weaver noted that the McCain camp has been silent in the state so far.

But Golnik said campaign offices would be open by August, and the campaign will heat up after Labor Day.

Daniel Person can be reached at dperson@dailychronicle.com or 582-2665.

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